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The McLaughlin Group

Issues: By the Riots’ Red Glare; To Trade or Not to Trade?; Gay Marriage; Which Way in the U.K.?

Participants:
John McLaughlin, Host
Pat Buchanan, Author and Columnist
Eleanor Clift, The Daily Beast
Tom Rogan, National Review/Daily Telegraph
Mort Zuckerman, US News & World Report

Taped: Friday, May 1, 2015
Broadcast: Weekend of May 1-3, 2015


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ANNOUNCER: From Washington, THE MCLAUGHLIN GROUP, the American original. For over three decades, the sharpest minds, best sources, hardest talk.

JOHN MCLAUGHLIN, HOST: Issue One: By the Riots’ Red Glare.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We have seen too many instances of what appears to be police officers interacting with individuals, primarily African-American, often poor, in ways that raise troubling questions. This has been a slow-rolling crisis. This has been going on for a long time. This is not new, and we shouldn’t pretend that it’s new.

MCLAUGHLIN (voice-over): Rioting broke out in Baltimore this week after the protest over the death of 25-year-old Freddie Gray in police custody grew violent. Mobs of rioters turned downturn Baltimore into a scene resembling a war zone, looting business, torching hundreds of cars and setting dozens of buildings on fire. Twenty police were injured in what officials described as coordinated attacks on the police. Six officers were seriously injured by the vengeance-minded mob.

Baltimore mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake and police commissioner Anthony Batts, both African-American, appealed for calm, while Governor Larry Hogan called out thousands of National Guard and additional police to restore order to the lawless city. Schools and museums were ordered closed, and the Baltimore Orioles and Chicago White Sox baseball game was postponed to protect the public from the rampaging mobs.

Baltimore, a once proud city that played a prominent role in American history and gave us the lyrics to our national anthem, after the Battle of Baltimore in the War of 1812, has lately been beset by a crime wave. Baltimore’s violent crime rate is 300 percent higher than the national average, and its murder rate is 600 percent higher. A heroin epidemic is sweeping the city. Civic leaders worry that this week’s riots would accelerate Baltimore’s decline.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MCLAUGHLIN: Question: Were President Obama’s remarks about the Baltimore police force’s interaction with minorities judicious or inflammatory?

Pat Buchanan?

PAT BUCHANAN, AUTHOR & COLUMNIST: John, after the riot started, the president came down with some very tough and I think correct language, condemning the rioters and the thieves and the looters. And so, I think he did the right thing, and I don’t have too much of a problem at all with what he said initially because it is true.

But let me tell you, on Friday, John, they came down with indictments for six police officers, after 100 had been injured in these riots, six police officers on charges ranging from second degree murder to manslaughter, to negligent homicide to neglect of their duties. And the charges look to me -- although this is a tragic death and something happened to that fellow, Freddie Gray -- the charges to me looked like they are clearly overdone. And I can’t see how a prosecutor, from what we know, can convict these cops of anything worse that negligent homicide, failing to do their duty and taking this fellow to a hospital.

But let me tell you -- we are headed for the type of situation we had in Los Angeles when Rodney King’s trial was held and those four fellows in Simi Valley, those four cops, and they were exonerated. And you had the worst riot we had since the 1960s. It happened in L.A.

MCLAUGHLIN: Eleanor?

ELEANOR CLIFT, THE DAILY BEAST: I think we should wait and see what happens in the trial. I think it is very good news that the state’s attorney acted swiftly as she did in Baltimore. She went through the whole, all of the statistics and all of the events, minute by minute, and explained all the charges that were being brought against these six policemen.

I think the community reacted with some relief, even in a celebratory way, because the -- all the steps leading to the Friday announcement were -- you had a leaked report that maybe Friday had injured himself deliberately in the back of the van. It looked like it was going to be another, you know, the blue line crowding in and the officials protecting.

So, I think this is very good news. You don’t know how a trial unfolds, and as the president said Friday, the policemen are certainly entitled to due process as well. But I think all the incidents that we have seen in recent weeks and months suggest there is a real problem with the way many police forces in many places, from cities to rural communities, interact with the communities they’re supposed to be protecting. Instead, it seems like they’re an occupying army, and they treat the residents like enemies. And that’s something that has to be addressed, not overnight.

The president has put a number of steps in place that can begin to help to correct this. And we have a new attorney general of Loretta Lynch, first black woman to be in that job. I think we know where much of her focus is going to be in the 18 months that she has in that job, and I welcome that as well.

MCLAUGHLIN: Well, I’m going to direct her to your remarks, Eleanor. You pretty much covered the --

CLIFT: OK.

MCLAUGHLIN: -- campus on this.

CLIFT: Right.

MCLAUGHLIN: I want to ask you this question: What percentage of the Baltimore police is made up of minorities?

TOM ROGAN, NATIONAL REVIEW/DAILY TELEGRAPH: I don’t know --

BUCHANAN: Forty percent black.

CLIFT: Forty percent.

BUCHANAN: Forty percent black.

MCLAUGHLIN: Forty percent Baltimore.

ROGAN: The city is -- it’s -- the city is predominantly made up with minorities.

BUCHANAN: It’s over 60 percent black, the city.

MCLAUGHLIN: It stands in stark contrast to Ferguson, where a tiny fraction of the police force was African-American. Whatever may be wrong with Baltimore is police tactics. The issue is not racial.

ROGAN: Well, I mean, the perception is in the part of young black men that they are unjustly persecuted by police officers. I think one of the positive things that’s developing now is body cameras with officers so that reasonable suspicion and probable cause can be either proved or challenged easily in court, protection of people, and where body cameras have been brought in, ithas had a reduction in violent complaints against police officers and I’m sure an increase in prosecution success because there’s evidence.

BUCHANAN: This conflict, John, is both race and class. But nationally, Eleanor was talking about it. It’s black folks in poor communities basically against white cops, although there apparently was a black cop or two involved in this, I don’t know.
MCLAUGHLIN: Mort, the president says this has been a slow-rolling crisis. We just played it. "This has been going on for a long time. This is not new and we shouldn’t pretend that it’s new. We have seen too many instances of what appears to be police officers interacting with individuals, primarily African-American, often poor, in ways that raise troubling questions."

So he’s very careful not to impute any kind of misbehavior or worse on the part of the police.

MORT ZUCKERMAN, U.S. NEWS & WORLD REPORT: Well, I think that was wise, frankly, because what you have -- it’s not just race in my judgment. It really is an underclass of people who are barely able to survive in economic terms; many of them are unemployed. Jobs are very difficult to get.

You know, you have a situation like this where they feel, shall we say, suppressed or oppressed on day to day, week to week, month to month. All of a sudden, you have an event like this and it causes that kind of explosion. But I would like to personally would have the president focused on an economic program for these cities where they did provide enough incentives to create jobs for these people.

BUCHANAN: If you look at the primary cause of the death of black men and boys, and it is extraordinarily high, is other black men and boys, 90 percent of them. But you cannot avoid, since many of the police forces have white officers in them, these clashes are going to come every year. And every year, you’re going to have one or two or three or four, they’re going to result in violence and deaths. And if you got one of these riots every time this has happened, this country does not have a very bright future.

MCLAUGHLIN: Hillary Clinton gave a speech this week in which she spoke of the million-and-a-half missing African-American men who are in prison. Will that boost her political standing?

BUCHANAN: I think she’s made a mistake, John, in this sense: she is taking -- this is turning into, basically, are you with the cops or are you with the protesters and demonstrators? And she came out and said there’s a pattern of cop behavior.

I think maybe it’s going to help her in the primaries, but in the general election, she’s moving on the side that Hubert Humphrey did in ’68 to lose that election.

CLIFT: Hubert Humphrey was a long time ago. I don’t think anyone can look at what happened in Ferguson --

BUCHANAN: If you divide it into the protesters and cops, who you think is going to win?

CLIFT: -- in Sanford, in Cleveland and say there’s not a pattern here. And when it comes to the missing black men, on prison reform, you’ve got all the conservative are lining up on that issue as well. The Koch brothers are funding initiatives --

ROGAN: Yes.

CLIFT: -- there is widespread agreement across the political lines that we put too many people in jail and --

BUCHANAN: Why do you think the crime has collapsed in New York City? In Baltimore, O’Malley cut the crime rate 40 percent. It’s astronomical. Nobody believed it could be done. It’s because of all those guys in jail, in prison --

(CROSSTALK)

CLIFT: Pat, you’re not even with the Republican Party on this one.

MCLAUGHLIN: Issue Two: To Trade or Not to Trade?

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

OBAMA: The trade agreements I’m negotiating would drive a race to the top. And we’re making sure American workers can retool through training programs and community colleges and use new skills to transition into new jobs. If I didn’t think this was the right thing to do for working families, I wouldn’t be fighting for it.

MCLAUGHLIN: President Obama is in a fight with his own party. Here’s the situation: the president wants Congress to give him, quote-unquote, "fast-track authority" to finalize a major free trade deal with Asia-Pacific nations. This deal, the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement, also known as TPP, is set to include Australia, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Singapore, Vietnam and New Zealand.

And with fast track authority, President Obama could negotiate the deal’s final elements without fear that Congress might add amendments to the deal and alienate TPP partners.

The Republicans are firmly in favor of the TPP, believing it will open up vast new export opportunities for American businesses. Yet many Democrats fear the TPP because it will jeopardize American jobs by encouraging U.S. businesses to ship jobs overseas.

The TPP appears to be gathering momentum, but the congressional holdouts remain passionate in their counter-arguments.

SEN. ELIZABETH WARREN (D), MASSACHUSETTS: American workers have really been slammed by past trade deals. They have not been good for us here in America. It’s not been good for American manufacturing. If this is a better deal, then hang it out there in public and let us take a look at it. Let us have a public conversation based on the facts.

MCLAUGHLIN: President Obama disagrees with Senator Warren.

OBAMA: I love Elizabeth. We’re allies on a whole host of issues. But she’s wrong on this.

MCLAUGHLIN: But it’s not just Elizabeth Warren showing concern. Enter Hillary Clinton, who once supported the Trans Pacific Partnership.

HILLARY CLINTON, FORMER SECRETARY OF STATE: The so-called TPP will lower barriers, raise standards and drive long-term growth across the region. It will cover 40 percent of the world’s total trade and establish strong protections for workers and the environment.

MCLAUGHLIN: But now, candidate Hillary is hedging. Here’s what she said at a recent campaign stop in Keene, New Hampshire.

CLINTON: How do you compete with, as you say, somebody doing the same thing in China?

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MCLAUGHLIN: Does Hillary have to support what she did support?

CLIFT: First of all, she doesn’t have to support it yet. There isn’t a deal yet. Once there’s a deal, it will be made public for 60 days, and Congress can only vote 30 days after that. So, we will eventually know what’s in this deal. But the whole point of fast track is, you can’t negotiate trade rules with all these other countries and then open it up and have members of Congress amend this, this, and that and the other thing.

And I think Elizabeth Warren knows that. And so, I think on that issue she’s wrong. Trade is a difficult issue for Democrats. There’s a bad taste leftover from NAFTA.

MCLAUGHLIN: Uh-huh.

CLIFT: NAFTA was way oversold and under-delivered. But what’s different about this agreement, the environmental rules and labor rules were side agreements to NAFTA, and they were not enforceable. They’re going to be part of this treaty. So --

MCLAUGHLIN: Let’s reflect on that. Obama is reciting the familiar nostrum of job retraining. For those whose livelihoods are destroyed by this agreement, what’s the track record of job training as a way to cope with foreign competition?

Mort?

ZUCKERMAN: It’s very limited. We’ve done it in a very limited way. It helps a little bit, but it doesn’t deal with some of the fundamental problems we have when we’re competing with countries which have much lower cost, labor cost in terms of their manufacturing, and a lot of talented people in addition to that. So, we are -- we have to find a way to be competitive.

BUCHANAN: That’s the whole point of these trade deals, is to close your factories and plants in the United States where the wages are too high and move them over to China and Mexico and all the rest of it, where the wages are low. That having been done, we lost six million manufacturing jobs in the first 10 years of this decade. In this new one, John, if it’s going to be a good deal, why are they doing all this job retraining? Who’s that for but the people that lose their jobs?

CLIFT: Oh, yes, but --

(CROSSTALK)

ROGAN: I would take the counter point of view on free trade. I think it’s inevitable. The problem is, you can’t race to the bottom, which is traditional manufacturing. Even China is suffering now because Vietnam, Philippines are undercutting them with wages. There’s rural to urban inequality in China, massive problems.

What the United States should be doing is taking advantage with the energy industry, taking advantage of our comparative advantage in high-technology training, and giving people (INAUDIBLE) to rely on a domestic economy in terms of consumer services. But we also have to have an economy that develops what we’re good at, that kind of --

(CROSSTALK)

MCLAUGHLIN: Well, you’re going on the side of Senator Warren, because the latest economic research on trade with China shows there has been a net negative for the U.S. in terms of overall economic impact.

BUCHANAN: John, of course --

CLIFT: Well --

MCLAUGHLIN: Some sectors of the U.S. economy benefit. But overall, the U.S. has lost in that trade deal.

CLIFT: Selling the deal --

BUCHANAN: We’ve got $3 trillion in trade deficits with China alone in the last 12 years. Look, Warren is standing up for the right to amend the bad treaty if it comes home. And the Republican Party, in the tank for Obama, says, we would like to surrender our right to amend the treaty he’d --

CLIFT: Well, but in a Republican-dominated Congress, Elizabeth Warren is not going to get a treaty amended that’s going to benefit the Democratic values.

ROGAN: If we don’t have fast track -- this is the problem: it won’t get through because the other -- Japan, they’re not going to sign up to it because they can’t go to their --

(CROSSTALK)

BUCHANAN: They won’t sign up to a good deal for America.

CLIFT: And if --

ROGAN: They won’t sign to a deal that forces them to make political compromises at home if we’re not willing to do the same.

(CROSSTALK)

BUCHANAN: Why doesn’t Japan want Congress in on the deal? Because they want dump their manufacturing in the United States, and Congress will say, hey, maybe we need a better deal --

(CROSSTALK)

ROGAN: It’s politics, domestic politics interacting foreign policy.

CLIFT: It’s domestic, right. I agree with that.

MCLAUGHLIN: I don’t want the audience to think that I’ve lost control of the show.

(LAUGHTER)

MCLAUGHLIN: Exit question: Will the Trans Pacific Partnership succeed in curbing China’s influence in Asia? Yes or no?

BUCHANAN: But, first, you got to get fast track through, John. And I’m not sure they’ve got the votes for it.

CLIFT: If they don’t get the deal, China gets to write the rules of trade, or nobody does, and China dominates. And the threat of China or the power of China is a big selling point that the president is making and pushing for this trade deal.

MCLAUGHLIN: Mort -- Mort?

ZUCKERMAN: I agree with what Eleanor is saying. We have got to do something here. We can’t leave the entire world to China’s, shall we say, competitors.

BUCHANAN: Chinese people are strong.

ZUCKERMAN: Because they work hard, they’re an intelligent people, they invested well.

BUCHANAN: What about their trade surplus of $3 trillion?

ZUCKERMAN: Yes, they --

(CROSSTALK)

MCLAUGHLIN: Issue Three -- if we have time for it -- Gay Marriage.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Equal protection under law should not be left to a referendum or a vote by the residents. Marriage should be allowed for gays and lesbians as it is for heterosexual couples. And we think that the only way that this can happen is through the courts.

If the Supreme Court rules in favor of marriage equality throughout the land, probably the first thing -- I cried. It means a lot to us.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: For anyone to say the Founding Fathers intended that there’d be same sex-marriage and this is somehow there in the Constitution for over 200 years and no one noticed it until it happened to become politically fashionable now is a little bit of a stretch.

MCLAUGHLIN (voice-over): Gay marriage. It’s legal in 36 states. But it’s an issue that can split Americans of every color and every creed. Some say that gay marriage is an affront to traditional society. Others say that in a free society, gay marriage is an absolute right. And this week, the Supreme Court heard both those arguments.

In testimony before the court, 16 openly gay and lesbian couples argued that the Constitution gives them the right to marry. And that constraints against doing so personally degrades them and damages their financial standing.

But arguing against the couples, lawyers for Kentucky, Michigan, Ohio and Tennessee, asked the court to respect the state legislative process. They say that marriage benefits are reserved to promote the social benefit of raising children. They say that there is no constitutional right to overturn the authority of legitimately elected state legislatures.

The stakes are high. If the court rules in favor of the couples, gay marriage will be legalized in the remaining states that currently restrict marriage to heterosexuals. But overturning those laws in the state legislatures would also cause great antagonisms in conservative communities across the nation.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MCLAUGHLIN: Question: What the Supreme Court going to do regarding gay marriage?

I ask you, Tom.

ROGAN: Well, it’s going to be very interesting. It’s a decisive moment. You see the emotions on both sides. I suspect the court is probably going to essentially either legalize benefits across the nation, that you can’t restrict benefits in terms of marriage, whether or not they allow gay marriage to go through.

But I think it does represent a generational shift. You see the kind of social conservative evolution to try and, you know, back away from this a little bit, because they realize that actually, younger, conservative voters -- people more like myself, even if we’re not gay -- you know, we’ve grew up with gay people and we don’t have a problem with them having the same rights.

And, look, and I would make a final point as well -- there are a lot of children who need good homes. And there are a lot of good people who are either gay or lesbian who could be good parents for those children.

MCLAUGHLIN: You don’t have a problem with gays?

ROGAN: I have no problem.

MCLAUGHLIN: Do they have a problem with you?

ROGAN: I don’t believe so.

MCLAUGHLIN: So, it’s a harmonious --

ROGAN: A harmonious relationship --

(CROSSTALK)

BUCHANAN: They might have a problem with you, John.

(LAUGHTER)

CLIFT: Yes. Look, hose were all nice issues you raised, but the court is supposed to decide on constitutional grounds --

ROGAN: Right.

CLIFT: -- and they’ve got to decide whether there’s a constitutional right --

ROGAN: Equal protection.

CLIFT: -- to same-sex marriage and/or do states that do not recognize gay marriage have to recognize gay marriage contracts made in other states?

ZUCKERMAN: Yes.

CLIFT: I suspect they’re going to do that because states --

MCLAUGHLIN: Yes.

CLIFT: -- under the Full Faith and Credit Clause, you can’t say another state’s contracts are not valid. Once you do that, you’ve basically open the door.

(CROSSTALK)

CLIFT: So, even if they try to rule narrowly, they’re going to make a big social change.

MCLAUGHLIN: Have the states (INAUDIBLE) number that really can’t be resisted by the Supreme Court?

BUCHANAN: No, I mean, was it, 33 or something like that?

CLIFT: Thirty-six states.

BUCHANAN: But, look, I think Eleanor is right. They’re going to say that Full Faith and Credit, you’ve got to recognize it. But some -- same-sex marriage is not in the Constitution of the United States. You’ve got to go back to Earl Warren’s decisions and court decisions after that, and try to place your own ideology --

MCLAUGHLIN: There’s nothing in the Constitution -- there’s nothing in the Constitution that denies same-sex marriage.

BUCHANAN: But no, there’s nothing in it that declares it a constitutional right, is there?

ROGAN: It’s constitutional interpretation.

CLIFT: But marriage is not even mentioned.

MCLAUGHLIN: Is there one needed?

BUCHANAN: No.

MCLAUGHLIN: Well, they are?

ROGAN: There’s a lot of stuff not in the Constitution, but the justices have to interpret.

(CROSSTALK)

BUCHANAN: I think same-sex marriage is what they call an oxymoron. It’s a contradiction in terms.

MCLAUGHLIN: Issue Four: Which Way in the U.K.?

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DAVID CAMERON, U.K. PRIME MINISTER: If you want to take a risk, go with the other guy. Vote for the other man. By God, he’s got plenty of risks. He’s gone all around the world. He’s found ideas that haven’t worked anywhere in the world, and he’s put them in the book. It’s called "The Labour Manifesto."

You want to risks? You want to put our security at risk? You want to put our stability at risk? You go with the other guy. I’m not going to put the British economy at risk. I’m not going to put the stability of Britain’s families at risk.

MCLAUGHLIN (voice-over): British voters will go to the polls next Thursday. They’ll have the chance to throw out Prime Minister David Cameron’s conservative government or give him a new five-year term.

Up against David Cameron is the Labour Party, led by Ed Milliband.

But while Mr. Cameron says that his policies have successfully brought Britain’s economy out of recession, Mr. Milliband believes Mr. Cameron has unfairly penalized the most vulnerable in British society to reduce the budget deficit. Mr. Milliband believes that government should cut less spending over the next five years and raise taxes on the wealthy instead.

ED MILLIBAND, LABOUR PARTY: I think we need responsibility, and you need compassion, on both of the more incredibly important parts of the welfare system. I don’t think this government has got either of them right, frankly.

There’s one other thing you need, though, for a successful welfare system, which is you need to deal with the underlying causes of high welfare bills. An economy where you got low pay, subsidizing employees to the tune of billions of pounds, a country where you don’t build homes with the housing benefit bill going up, which is the situation at the moment.

MCLAUGHLIN: But this is an unusual election. With the Scottish Nationalist Party expected to seize many traditional labor seats in Scotland, and U.K. Independence Party expected to siphon off Conservative voters in England, neither the Conservatives nor Labour are expected to win a majority in the new parliament. And get this -- the Conservative current coalition partners, the moderate liberal Democrats, are widely expected to lose many seats of their own. This means that chaos is looming.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MCLAUGHLIN: Question: from an American perspective, what difference does it make whether David Cameron or Edward Milliband is prime minister?

Tom Rogan?

ROGAN: Well, Ed Milliband is a more traditional left-wing leader in the sense that he wants to increase the role of government, increase the role of regulation, increase taxes on the wealthy and to have to slightly lower cuts in spending. David Cameron wants to move towards a smaller state, lower taxes, lower spending.

And so, that’s the big debate. And it’s a big option --

MCLAUGHLIN: Which one of the two have reinforced the positions taken by Barack Obama?

ROGAN: Ed Milliband is probably close to Barack Obama. But David Cameron is personally close to President Obama, and I think they have a good professional relationship. What’s interesting about this election, though, is the Labour Party, to have a governing coalition, will have to rely on Scottish Nationalists, who are separatists. The Conservatives will have to rely on other coalition partners --

MCLAUGHLIN: Where has Cameron parted ways with Obama on foreign policies?

ROGAN: One of the other panel might be better --

BUCHANAN: I mean, I think what Cameron has done, and I think Milliband would do is, the British are lowering their profile internationally. And I think the old relationship with the United States is not as tight.

But, John, let me say that the Labour Party, if they partner with the Scottish National Party, you are bringing secessionists into your own government. People who want to split Scotland away from England --

CLIFT: Yes.

BUCHANAN: -- are going to be in the Labour Party government.

CLIFT: Better in the tent than outside, and that’s usually said more graphically than I do said it.

But Prime Minister Cameron and President Obama are really -- they have a very close bond. And I think the president would be happy with either of these leaders, and I suspect he might be privately rooting for Cameron.

MCLAUGHLIN: Are you sure that the president has a close bond with anybody?

CLIFT: Yes, I am sure about that.

MCLAUGHLIN: Well, what kind of a president is that?

Mort?

CLIFT: That’s a president doing his job.

ZUCKERMAN: Listen, I mean, first, they are a key ally of the United States. We need them to support us. The problem that we’re going to have is that a lot of the policies that this president wants to advance are now -- have lost a huge amount of support in Europe, and including in England. So, I think it’s going to be a real, shall we say, area of conflict.

BUCHANAN: Their military is shrinking.

ROGAN: Yes.

ZUCKERMAN: Yes.

BUCHANAN: The British military is shrinking.

(CROSSTALK)

CLIFT: Which U.S. policies have lost support in England?

MCLAUGHLIN: We haven’t spoken about another leader in the world, and his name is Putin. Which of the two do you think Putin would support the more?

ZUCKERMAN: I think --

MCLAUGHLIN: Milliband or --

ZUCKERMAN: Putin would like anybody who -- any major Western country that reduces its military presence.

CLIFT: Well, Putin is so isolated. It doesn’t matter what he cares about --

(CROSSTALK)

ROGAN: One concern that the Obama administration might have with Ed Milliband is that Ed Milliband was responsible in August 2013 for preventing British parliamentary vote that would have taken action against Syria. So, and that led President Obama to change course in that --

MCLAUGHLIN: What about the European Union and the impact on it --

BUCHANAN: Farage, I think the party --

MCLAUGHLIN: Which could lead to an earlier disillusion of the European Union?

BUCHANAN: But Farage is not going to get --

MCLAUGHLIN: Milliband or --

ROGAN: If you had to pick one, it would be Cameron. But neither wants that.

BUCHANAN: Cameron will offer the referendum at least if he wins and stay in the European Union.

CLIFT: The thing is --

MCLAUGHLIN: Predictions, Pat?

BUCHANAN: The Turks are eating the radicals in Syria, and the government of Bashar al-Assad is in increasing trouble.

MCLAUGHLIN: Eleanor?

CLIFT: President Obama will get fast track authority, and he will get more than the 25 Democrats that supported fast track in 2002, which was the last time it was authorized.

MCLAUGHLIN: Mort?

ZUCKERMAN: You know, the growth of GDP in the first quarter of two-tenths of 1 percent is so far below what anybody expects. It really is going to indicate a much weaker economy going forward than anybody previously estimated.

ROGAN: Yes, two things. Number one, Iran is going to continue to harass vessels in the Persian Gulf. There’s a real potential of conflict. And Pat is right about Turkey and Saudi Arabia: the potential for actually even an invasion there is growing.

MCLAUGHLIN: What about Milliband in London?

ROGAN: I think Cameron will win.

MCLAUGHLIN: I predict that Senator Elizabeth Warren will run for president in 2020 if Hillary loses her bid next year, and in 2024 if Hillary wins next year.

Bye-bye!

END